Get ready!  Food prices are rising yet again.  And we don’t those mean exotic, imported foods.  We’re talking about the staples that we eat every day.    

This is not the first time food has become more expensive, but this is an increase on top of other increases.  In other words, the percentage increase may be the same as the last one, but because the base price is higher, the pinch will feel that much greater.   

 

The Steaks Are High

Millions of people will cut back on their lifestyles when forced to, but the last thing they’ll give up are their meat meals.  Unfortunately, many will have no choice.  Prices of beef and related items have been increasing steadily for several years.  Going forward, they will continue to rise.  That’s because supply and demand is working against consumers.    

According to Zero Hedge, the U.S. cattle herd is now the smallest since 1961.  “America’s beef cow inventory has steadily declined over the last half decade and is now at a 64-year low.  This signals a deepening crisis across the cattle industry and as the crisis worsens consumers should brace themselves for higher ground beef prices.” 

Times are tough for cattle farmers.  They had, and still have, to contend with high interest rates, rising feed prices, falling farm income and surging farm debt, among other issues.  Also, many consumers are opting for less expensive chicken meals for a variety of reasons. 

 

Smaller Herds

The combination of these problems has forced many ranchers to thin their herds.  Fewer cattle indicates the price of meat could remain high for the immediate future.  But it also suggests that prices may remain high for an extended time because smaller herds will make it more difficult for ranchers to grow their herds significantly.

The population of the U.S. was 183 million in 1961 and it has nearly doubled since then; the U.S. cattle inventory has not kept pace.  How can it satisfy this much larger population?  It really can’t, so it’s no wonder why beef (and other meats) has become so expensive and why their prices likely will remain high.  

 

Feeling The Effects

The ramifications of this are already taking a toll.  Many people have had to cut back on their meat consumption and instead purchase lower quality foods that may be processed or have unhealthy “fillers.”  The fast food industry is also feeling the effects.  Not very long ago, it offered tasty meals at affordable prices.  Now some of those companies and stores have folded and others are on the ropes and in danger of closing.  

The effects extend even further.  Food banks, for example, have customarily assisted people who are unemployed.  Now they are being asked to help the working poor too – people who have jobs but are nevertheless unable to purchase the basic foods they need. 

 

Not Just Cattle

As the saying goes, “when it rains it pours,” and this certainly applies to the food industry these days because higher prices and supply problems are not limited to cattle.  Look at what’s happening with eggs for example.  

Eggs were always valued for their high nutrition, low cost, for being readily available and inexpensive; they are also tasty and can be prepared easily.  But eggs are no longer inexpensive and, in some areas, not always available – at any price.  Blame the bird flu for that. 

 

The Good Old Days

The most recent outbreak of bird flu in the U.S. began in 2022 and while it created problems, poultry farms and shoppers managed to cope.  Let’s hear it for the good old days, because according to CBS News, “After a brief respite from bird flu among commercial-egg producers (it) started again in mid-October.”  

The CDC said that since January 2022, bird flu has affected 110 million chickens, turkeys and other birds.  And it has become a problem in 49 states.  Since mid-October, 17 million egg-laying hens and younger birds (pullets) needed to be culled.  This has led to lower egg-production, much higher prices (in some areas a dozen eggs are now at all-time highs) and in others, particularly in the West, to shortages and even empty shelves in stores.  The Dept. of Agriculture said egg production is down 2.6% since last year. 

This is important to both neighborhood and commercial bakers and, of course, consumers.  CBS says the return of bird flu has wiped out poultry populations at commercial facilities in multiple states.  By the way, fewer chickens have also driven up the price of chicken in some states.  This is in addition to the higher prices consumers are paying for orange juice, chocolate, pasta, bananas, sugar, and other popular foods.

Although higher prices for these items are impacting many people, the cattle shortage is of much greater concern.  And, according to Bloomberg, it will only get worse because of new regulations that are about to go into effect.  Economists say that the tariffs President-elect Trump is expected to impose will further pressure the U.S. beef supply and, so too, will his plans regarding immigration.  

Derrell Peel, a professor of agricultural economics at Oklahoma State Univ., told Bloomberg that “All of the things (Trump) is talking about potentially have more negative consequences than anything positive.  Our fate’s pretty well determined in the cattle industry in the U.S. for the next two to four years, – and it’s not looking good.” 

And his thinking is gaining support.  In February 2024, the U.S. Dept. of Agriculture projected that the cattle herd could begin rebuilding by 2025.  But since then, the projected timeline has been pushed forward to 2027 because of high interest rates and poor pasture conditions in the Midwest.  The bottom line: It will take a long time until the supply of beef and other foods gets back to what is considered normal.

So the outlook at this point is that the price of beef, eggs/poultry, and related products will remain high or possibly go even higher.  And all of us, beef eaters and vegetarians alike, are just going to have to deal with this new reality.     

Sources: bloomberg.com; cbsnews.com; nbcnews.com; poplarreport.com; usda.library.cornell.edu; zerohedge.com


Gerald Harris is a financial and feature writer. Gerald can be reached at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.