My favorite column to write is the one for the Purim edition. However, it has become difficult, since what used to be considered crazy and satirical is now normal.
There have been three long-term leaders in Congress. Nancy Pelosi as Democratic leader in the House of Representatives, Mitch McConnell as Republican leader in the Senate, and Chuck Schumer as Democratic leader in the Senate. Both Pelosi and McConnell gave up their leadership posts to let the next generation take over. It may be time for Schumer to do the same.
Schumer first came out against voting for the continuing resolution passed by the House of Representatives without Democratic Party input. There were problems with the bill. However, if the bill did not pass the Senate, then the government would shut down. Then Schumer changed his mind and said he would support the bill. There was clearly no good choice. The choice was the least bad choice.
It ended up being a lose-lose situation for Schumer. Those who wanted him to kill the bill were upset that he changed his mind. Even those who wanted to pass the bill were upset because Schumer’s flip-flop made him look weak. There are progressives who want Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez to challenge Schumer in a primary when he is up for reelection in 2028. Whether that happens or not, this debacle by Schumer is a reason why it is time for him to give up the leadership of the Senate for the next generation.
Another problem when an important elected official changes his mind is that it creates uncertainty. This is the complaint with Trump 2024 as opposed to Trump 2016. Trump threatens to impose tariffs and then changes his mind and puts them off for a short time, threatening to put them back on. After a short period, the cycle starts all over. Other times, he puts the tariffs on and then takes them off and threatens to put them back on or keep them on with the possibility that they will be taken off. These changes relate not only to particular countries but also to various items.
The effect is that businesses have no idea how to plan for the future, since things change day by day. This uncertainty results in less business investment and causes them to raise prices in anticipation of tariffs.
This also affects consumers who have no idea whether they should buy an appliance or car or other item today, because if there are tariffs the price will increase. The fear of tariffs could cause people to buy more of the items that could be subject to tariffs, which increases prices even in the absence of a tariff.
Also, it effects consumer confidence, which has tanked since Trump became president. In February, consumer confidence registered the largest monthly decline since August 2021. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions— dropped 9.3 points to 72.9. Anything below 80 is an indication that they believe that there will be a recession. The preliminary survey in March had the expectations measure for the future was off 15.3% on a monthly basis from February levels. Expectations fell 10% for Republicans, 24% for Democrats, and 12% for Independents,
Trump was elected because of the belief that he would be better than Harris for the economy. His recent rating as to how he is handling the economy is 10% higher negative than positive, which is different than it was during his first term.
I expect the Trumpians to look at the recent CPI, which shows little increase in inflation, and argue that his policies are working. As Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick noted, the economy of the first six months of a new administration is based on the policies of the prior administration. In other words, it takes at least six months for the new administrations ’s policies to impact the economy. Thus, the good economic news has nothing to do with Trump.
Because of Trump’s confusing actions with tariffs, the change in the economy might not wait until June. It could affect the economy in a negative way sooner than that.
When Trump came into power, there was low level of unemployment, people were optimistic about the economy and inflation was close to the Fed’s target. Trump has done his best to change it by implementing confusing tariff policies and claiming that short term pain is worth long-term gain. Trump will not have his chance to totally mess things up if he continues this route and there is inflation and a recession. The voters cannot take it out on Trump but will take it out on the Republicans who are up for election in the 2026 midterms. Trump won on the economy, and the Republican Party will lose seats in Congress if it goes south.
Warren S. Hecht is a local attorney. He can be reached at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
