I went to sleep last night after hearing the news that Iran had fired missiles at the largest American airbase in the region, with no casualties or damage. I woke up this morning to the news that President Trump announced that Israel and Iran had agreed to a ceasefire. Predictably, both sides proclaimed victory. Iran claimed that the ceasefire had been imposed on Israel in the wake of its attack on the US airbase. Israel said that it was ending the war because its aims of ending the nuclear and ballistic missile threats from Iran had been achieved. What is the truth, and what can we anticipate in the days ahead?
The article I had written for this week’s newspaper was outdated before I had a chance to submit it, and I am writing this one rather hastily. President Trump has claimed that both Israel and Iran have broken the ceasefire, that he was angrier at Israel, and that he had told Prime Minister Netanyahu in no uncertain terms to stand down.
Another cause for concern is that while President Trump, with his typical hyperbole, has claimed that Iran’s nuclear sites have been “obliterated,” American and Israeli military officials have been much more cautious, saying they have been “severely damaged.” Iran may have moved its highly enriched uranium to secret locations elsewhere. While Iran’s nuclear ambitions have clearly been set back significantly, it may still have the ability to construct a nuclear weapon in the long run.
The war has been a decisive victory for Israel and the United States. It may well become a textbook example of how to effectively use military and diplomatic power in the 21st century. Israel and the US had clear-cut, achievable goals and met them without becoming bogged down in a drawn-out conflict.
Both Israel and the United States have learned the lessons of previous wars. Israel’s Operation Peace for Galilee and the US wars in Afghanistan and Iraq began successfully. The IDF reached the gates of Beirut, and the PLO was expelled from Lebanon. The Taliban regime was deposed in Afghanistan, and Saddam Hussein was toppled in Iraq. But in each case, “mission creep” undid what was achieved. We tried to remake Lebanon, Afghanistan, and Iraq in our image by installing new leaders. In doing so, we became embroiled in the sectarian politics of countries we didn’t begin to understand. The leaders we appointed were often corrupt and had very little support from the population of their countries. The Israeli and American publics became disillusioned with casualties and demanded that their governments put an end to seemingly endless wars. Thus, Israel withdrew from South Lebanon in 2000, essentially driven out by Hezbollah. The Taliban regained control of Afghanistan. Iraq is nominally a democracy, but much of the real power is in the hands of rival sectarian militias, many of which are pro-Iran.
This time, there would be no “mission creep.” Israel and the United States had limited objectives. Once those objectives were achieved, we stopped fighting. Regime change in Tehran is desirable, but it is something the Iranian people will have to do for themselves.
At this point, the stars have aligned. It is in the best interest of Israel, the United States, and Iran to end the war now.
President Trump is determined to avoid a drawn-out war. He was elected on an “America First” pledge to avoid “forever wars.” A protracted war with Iran would have drained American resources that are desperately needed to deal with other pressing problems. American casualties would have led to anti-war demonstrations. They would have taken place not just on college campuses, but in the cities and towns of America, and been led not just by “woke” progressives but by President Trump’s MAGA base and the families of American servicemen and women. Egged on not just by Rashida Tlaib and Ilhan Omar, but by Tucker Carlson and Marjorie Taylor Greene, many of them would blame Israel and the Jews for dragging America into yet another “forever war.” Ending the war is in the best interest of the United States, President Trump, and the American Jewish community. President Trump apparently gambled that he could end the war by bombing the Iranian nuclear sites. That gamble seems to have paid off.
For Israel, the war has reached the point of diminishing returns. While Israel’s aerial defense system has performed splendidly, it has not performed perfectly. While 80%–90% of the Iranian missiles and drones were shot down, the 10%–20% that got through have caused considerable damage. Twenty-eight people have been killed. Beersheba and the Gush Dan area around Tel Aviv have sustained considerable damage. Key installations like the Haifa oil refinery and Soroka Hospital have been hit. Rockets have fallen dangerously close to the headquarters of the IDF and Mossad. Each day that the war continues is another day on which an Iranian missile could hit its target with catastrophic results. At this point, the risks of continuing war outweigh the benefits. With Israel having defeated Hezbollah, decimated Hamas, killed many of Iran’s military leaders and nuclear scientists, and destroyed much of Iran’s nuclear material and ballistics, it was time to declare victory and end the war.
For Iran, ending the war now cuts its losses. Had the war continued, Iran would have lost even more of its military assets, and the regime itself may have fallen. By ending the war now, Iran’s leaders can claim to have withstood the assault from Israel and the United States and live to fight another day. Iran may now believe that a nuclear weapon is the only way to protect itself. If some of its stockpile of highly enriched uranium has survived, Iran could withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and resume its process of developing a nuclear weapon in secret. Another path would be to negotiate a deal under which Iran would receive relief from economic sanctions in exchange for agreeing to end its nuclear program. Given President Trump’s penchant for deal-making, that is probably his preferred outcome. Iran could then use the money from sanctions relief to rebuild its military, rearm its proxy forces, and recreate the ring of fire around Israel. It is crucial that any agreement with Iran also deal with the issues of ballistics and support for terror.
With the war in Iran over, attention will soon shift back to Gaza. There will be new accusations of “genocide” and a “humanitarian crisis.” Our hostages continue to languish in captivity. The demonstrations calling for an end to the war, which threaten to tear Israel apart, will resume. Israel’s achievements since October 7, 2023, have been remarkable. But they have come at a heavy price. Families have been disrupted, and careers have been destroyed by frequent call-ups for reserve duty. Some of the parents, children, and spouses who have left their families will never return. The tourism industry, a key to Israel’s economy, has collapsed. The people of Israel have demonstrated extraordinary courage and resilience over the past 18 months. How much more can we be expected to endure? With Hezbollah destroyed, Hamas decimated, and Iran’s nuclear ambitions and ballistic programs extensively damaged, if not totally destroyed, Israel is more secure today than ever before. It is time to end the war in Gaza and bring all of our hostages home.
President Trump deserves the eternal thanks of Israel and the Jewish people for bombing the Iranian nuclear sites. But he didn’t do it just, or even primarily, for us. An Iranian nuclear weapon would have been as dangerous to the Arab states of the Persian Gulf as to Israel. Trump recently traveled through the Persian Gulf signing business deals to benefit the United States while his sons were lining up deals to benefit the Trump Organization. What do the Saudis, Bahrainis, and Emiratis expect in return? The Arabs were interested in reaching accommodations with Israel because they saw Israel as a useful security partner against Iran. With the Iranian threat eliminated, will the Persian Gulf states still view Israel as a valuable security partner? Or will they play to the hatred of Israel on the Arab street?
President Trump is eager to bring Saudi Arabia into the Abraham Accords. The Saudis have made clear that the price will be a pathway to a Palestinian state. Will it be possible to reach some kind of agreement that meets Saudi demands, improves the day-to-day life of the Palestinian people, and addresses Israel’s security concerns?
Ahmad al-Sharra, the new President of Syria, is a former member of Al-Qaeda. He can be described as Islamist-lite. He has written a constitution that enshrines Muslim religious law as the law of Syria and has killed religious minorities. At the same time, he has expressed a desire for good relations with the West. President Trump met with him on his recent trip to the Persian Gulf and ended US sanctions on Syria. Al-Sharra has expressed interest in peace with Israel, and there has even been talk of Syria joining the Abraham Accords. Can someone with Al-Sharra’s background be trusted to make peace with Israel? Even if he is sincere, will his price for peace be the return of the Golan Heights to Syria?
With Iran weakened, Turkey stands to become the new power in the Muslim world. Its president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, is a notorious anti-Semite who has hosted Hamas. As the leader of a NATO ally, Erdogan—whom Trump considers a close friend—will have the president’s ear.
Israel clearly owes President Trump in a big way. Will Trump, the casino magnate and deal-maker, cash in his chips to pressure Israel to give in to the demands of his Arab friends and business partners, in order to reach what he will no doubt proclaim to be the greatest deal ever made?
President Trump did have Israel’s back when we needed him the most. But he is not the Moshiach. Israel’s achievements over the last 18 months have been extraordinary, but challenges remain. Let us take pride in and acknowledge what has been achieved, while looking realistically at the challenges ahead and how they can be overcome. Since 1945, we have created a successful state that is a military, economic, and high-tech powerhouse, with united Jerusalem as its capital. More people are learning Torah at a high level than ever before. We cracked the Iron Curtain to achieve the greatest mass rescue of Jews since the Exodus from Egypt. Within a decade, a majority of the world’s Jews will be living in the Land of Israel for the first time in more than 2,500 years. We will overcome the challenges of the future as we have overcome the challenges of the past because we have the most powerful and dependable ally of all: “The Eternal One of Israel will never be proved false.”
Manny Behar is the former Executive Director of the Queens Jewish Community Council and a senior aide to New York City public officials. He now lives in the Talpiot neighborhood of Jerusalem and can be contacted at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it..